As we all wait with baited breath for the election outcome in the US, below is a stunning piece of writing by Kari James, a Brisbane-based researcher who specialises in trauma.
Whatever the result, the core problem in America won’t be resolved by a Donald Trump defeat. He really is just a symptom of a much bigger problem. James explains part of that problem in this special New Matilda feature, but a warning to the empathetic lefties that dominate our readership… you’re perhaps not going to like what James has to say about the origins of ‘conspiracy thinking’, and the way our side of politics has reacted to it.
Alex Vickery-Howe is tipping a Trump win (see story at the bottom of this email, or just click here).
In contrast, New Matilda (i.e. me) is tipping a Harris win. And a more comperhensive one than we all might expect. While I think it might be close in the seven swing states, I think Harris will ultimately win the electoral college vote more comfortably than predicted.
I’ve been wrong before, of course, but here’s my reasoning.
1. The polls got it wrong (again) in 2022, and over-estimated the Republican vote (the so-called red wave that never transpired). This has been an ongoing problem since Trump’s win in 2016. There’s been an over-correction, and I don’t think it’s been fixed yet.
2. Notwithstanding the problems with the polls, they’re not worthless. On that front, Harris has never trailed Trump since her entry into the race in July. That’s significant, even if the polls can be somewhat unreliable and should be treated with caution.
3. Trump’s poling has not shifted, despite two assassination attempts, including one that clipped off the top of his ear. ‘In the good ld days’ (i.e. all of recorded human history) it’s been inconceivable that a political candidate wouldn’t benefit from events like these. And yet, here we are. The polls haven’t moved for Trump. There’s been no ‘bump’ (a feature on that also below). That’s because people have already made their mind up about Trump. He’s the most polarising political character in a long time, and I don’t think he’s going to enjoy a drift in the dying days and hours of the race.
Ultimately, I think Republicans are going to pay for their destruction of Roe v Wade (the abortion laws), and their support of a candidate with not many actual policies beyond ‘the immigrants are coming to kill you’. We all know that ‘fear and loathing’ of ‘the other’ is a powerful motivator in elections – John Howard showed that in 2001 with the Tampa election. And Donald Trump has certainly motivated a lot of his base with his increasingly violent rhetoric. But I don’t think it’s enough to offset the depths of his character flaws.
Of course, even if Trump loses, America is still in serious trouble. And serious decline. That’ll be the subject of some more New Matilda features in the not-too-distant future, and of course, we’ll have some analysis later this week… hopefully not a mea culpa from me about terrible election predictions. But stranger things have happened.
Whatever the outcome, stay safe, strap yourselves in for another wild and ridiculous ride… and smoke ’em if you got ’em.
Chris Graham
Publisher/editor
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