Today's odds


On Saturday, Labor was up a smidgin: ALP 36%, Coalition 64%

With a week to go, let’s assess how the campaign has gone.
Week 1: Coalition up 3%.
Week 2: Coalition up 8% (the week of the Jakarta bombing) Week 3: ALP up 2% Week 4: ALP up 3% Week 5: ALP up 2%
Net result: Coalition up 4%

Like polls, there is some margin of error around the betting odds (though I haven’t figured out how best to calculate it). But bearing that caveat in mind, it does look as though Labor has done better in the second half of the campaign, though not enough to overcome the Coalition’s gains in the first half.

Sunday – no change.

Monday – Labour Day ain’t Labor’s Day. The Coalition’s up a smidgin from yesterday. Howard 68%, Latham 32%

Launched in 2004, New Matilda is one of Australia's oldest online independent publications. It's focus is on investigative journalism and analysis, with occasional smart arsery thrown in for reasons of sanity. New Matilda is owned and edited by Walkley Award and Human Rights Award winning journalist Chris Graham.