In an article following the 2001 federal election, Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh found that election betting odds were a better tool for forecasting the election results than opinion polls. Like other types of markets, election betting markets aggregate all available information. While opinion polls can suffer from the ‘cheap talk’ problem, when money is on the line, punters are more likely to come up with the right answer.
During the election campaign, Andrew Leigh will be providing us with a daily update on what the polls are saying about who will win the election.
For more about the theory of betting markets, and an Excel file showing the betting odds throughout the campaign, see www.andrewleigh.com.
What do the betting markets say today?
Coalition: 63%
Labor: 37%
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