us politics
28 Aug 2008
Passing the Chalice
Hillary is behaving herself at the Convention, but her real value is to teach Obama a few important lessons which he'd better learn if he wants to go all the way
Hillary Clinton casts a long shadow over Barack Obama as the Democratic Convention does its job of anointing him as their candidate.
This is in part because Obama is not travelling so well since clinching the deal with the superdelegates in June. All the same, "Obamacans" need not panic yet. It would be an historic upset for him to lose the presidential election. The tide of history is on the side of the Democrats in 2008. Yet a ten point gap in the polls between presidential voting intentions and voting intentions for congress illustrate the enduring weakness of a candidate who was greeted in messianic terms by his supporters as "The One".
The One would unite America and turn the whole map blue on election day with his "50 state strategy". The congressional race indeed looks like a coming landslide for the Democrats. The presidential race however looks almost identical to 2004, hinging on the swing state of Ohio, with a few others like Virginia and Colorado thrown in for extra excitement.
If Obama did not appear shaky electorally, the announcement of his choice of running mate would not have been so eagerly awaited, nor would we be so interested in the speeches of his rivals for the nomination.
Hillary Clinton's speech to the convention was polished and pushed all the familiar buttons of her own campaign: from universal healthcare to "green collar jobs", from women's rights to gay rights. It rallied the Democratic base to unite behind their nominee, Barack Obama. It was a speech well honed by constant rehearsal and as passionate as if it were she who was accepting the nomination.
The speech was evidence of how much the nomination campaign improved Senator Clinton's own stumping skills, and of how the nomination battle made a stronger candidate out of her all round even though she was unable to win. She went into the contest as the liberal, elite candidate, and emerged the champion of the working class and battlers everywhere. Obama went in as the fresh faced outsider, and emerged looking like Clinton did at the beginning.
In this respect Obama's biggest problem is far from the Democratic base. His support has fallen among independent voters, where he started so strong in the early primaries. Reverend Wright sapped that support and it has never fully recovered.
Clinton's speech was aimed at her supporters rather than the independents who will really decide the election. Most dedicated "Clintonistas" will heed the call for unity against John McCain because, like Hillary, they are Democrats first and foremost. For many, Hillary's brilliant performance will be a reminder of the opportunity they lost by the narrowest of margins to have their candidate in the White House - but they will do their duty.
The big problem for Obama is not disgruntled Hillary voters, but the rest of America. It won't be feminists and gay rights activists who will vote for McCain in November, but the "small town America" Obama derided in his speech in San Francisco during the Pennsylvania primaries. For losing support in that America, responsibility lies with Obama rather than Clinton.
Obama supporters have been loudly demanding Senator Clinton miraculously deliver the voters who would have voted for her to Senator Obama. In so doing, they have only compounded their candidate's image problem. It is not up to the Clintons to win the election for Obama. That is Obama's job. Relying on the Clintons reinforces the view among the broader electorate that Obama is not ready to stand alone as "commander in chief". Like Obama's pick of Joe Biden as VP, Clinton's professionalism and energy only highlights his weakness and inexperience. These are the perceptions that will guide the hands of undecided and independent voters on election day.
Obama needs a defining moment like Hillary's in New Hampshire, when she found her own voice again. Preferably, at a pivotal moment in October.
In the Congressional polls, Democrats have been over 10 points ahead all year. In the first presidential polls following the opening of the Democratic convention, McCain edged marginally ahead in Gallup for the first time. For a very brief moment, as McCain makes his own choice of running mate, the presidential election may be his to lose, rather than Obama's.
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I think McCain has a small chance if he picks a centrist woman as his VP. McCain’s support has always come from the centre and Obama’s from the Left. Obama’s task is to move to the centre and McCain’s task is to keep the centre. A woman VP would swing 2-5% of the vote McCain’s way.
However, I doubt the competence of the Republicans to pick a woman VP! That’s why they will lose this year.
Joe Biden can’t hurt with getting Barack some of the Catholic working class and hispanics vote. I suspect that the VP candidates will make little difference just like 2004.
Kevin Rennie
http://laborview.blogspot.com/
Wow, I’m feeling quite vindicated this morning and a little impressed by the Republican strategists. While I thought they would never have the guts to be bold and pick a woman VP, it was clearly the logical strategic choice. Picking a down-to-earth Alaskan who was elected fighting corruption is also going to be problematic for the Democrats who are trying to catch the reforming centre but are battling perceptions of elitism.
The Republicans strategists now need to paint Obama/Biden as "just two more boring old men insiders/elites" and McCain/Palin as the reforming alternative. Maybe even "the gritty underdogs" - but that might be more of an Australian tactic than an American one (Americans like voting for winners not underdogs?) McCain’s reforming credentials are actually pretty good, and with a woman VP (her anti-corruption Alaskan credentials are a plus), the sell has become a lot easier.
The big problem will be money. The Democrats probably have enough money to outspend McCain 2:1, which is enough to buy the election in my opinion. Money will be the deciding factor.
McCain’s chance is that Obama will respond VERY poorly to being painted as part of the male majority. Obama only knows how to be "the outsider" and "the reformer" and he may dash a lot of his resources trying to "out righteous" a woman VP. Obama will not willingly cede his "oppressed minority" credentials as a black man (16% of the US population) against the "oppressed minority" credentials of a white woman (30% of the US population) - witness his death struggle with Clinton earlier in the year. Obama would do better to run hard as the safe choice instead of the "change" choice, and McCain/Palin as the crazy fringe choice.
Once again I doubt the Republican’s competence to run as hard with the gender identity politics as they need to. They could really bang Obama around the head with this issue but they probably won’t.
For their part, the Democrats will try to paint her as lightweight and "Dan Qualye-esque", but she just needs to lob the sexism charge at them if they try, and then watch the Democrats run a mile!
It must gall Democrats that they can now be painted as the anti-woman party, especially as Obama has a weakness on women (I think something to do with him repudiating his cool atheist mother). It gets McCain into places he could never go himself … women’s magazines, women’s television shows, even possibly feminist groups … and even though Palin is probably a wing-nut conservative on abortion (the Republican get-out-the-vote machine might be energised), her gender and reform credentials might suppress and blunt some Democrat activists (women especially).
I hate the Republican party. But I like McCain. And I don’t mind Obama. This is the election campaign America should have more often. Two smart, honest and moderately decent people. Pity they don’t have preferential voting.
Ha, in summary American presidential politics has this amazing ability to throw up people who are equal parts brilliant and woeful!
And I would add that somebody on the McCain campaign is definitely earning his/her money. The fact the McCain is even mildly competitive at this point is amazing.
Yes, Sarah Palin’s nomination is BIG. It really shows what an opportunity was lost by the Democrats this year.
Now the Republicans have a potential woman presidential candidate for 2012/2016. The historic nature of HRC running is wiped out. The Democrats become the ‘man’s party’ thanks to Obama’s unimaginative, even scared, choice of Biden. Palin looks at this point like a good, bold choice. Palin is a conservative and not a feminist, but she’s a woman, and that’s gonna bite.
What a fascinating election this is continuing to become.
Thinking about this a little further, I notice that many Democrats and election watchers still haven’t moved on from the primary battle.
This move by McCain to nominate Palin is not aimed at Hillary Clinton supporters. There’s not a self respecting ‘Clintonista’ who will vote for a woman who is anti-choice and not a feminist.
This move is aimed at the many women who voted for and would have voted in the general election for Clinton not on ideological/principle grounds but simply because she was a woman like them.
Smart move by McCain, and really it should not have been surprising. She’s also got more executive experienced than Obama, as well as being younger. Obama’s one hope now is that Palin turns out to be a polar bear killer or club penguins for a hobby.
Well, I wouldn’t say "his one chance" … he does have several hundred million dollars more than McCain!
True, and who knows, a conservative woman like Palin may be just the thing to galvanise feminists in support of the Obama-Biden ticket.
It’s a gamble, but a bold one - Obama is the frontrunner playing it safe, McCain is the chance-taking outsider who could cause an upset. How far we’ve come!
haha, you underestimate the ability of the progressive movement for naval gazing, paralysing inaction and debilitating second-guessing of our own actions and motives.
hmm, that should be navel gazing (the navy isn’t involved)
Perhap’s Hilary’s passion is in direct corelation to a prospective position in the Democrat government eg. Secretary of State?
Obama certainly has the educated elite and needs to convince those working class Hilary supporters that he is indeed ready to be ‘commander in chief’ for them.
He does have a strong appeal to women (stronger than McCains) and the nomination of Palin may be the weak link he’s looking for to appeal to all those macho, gender-biased males (millions of them) who don’t believe a woman should be anywhere near being ‘commander in chief’.
This fact alone and the fact she is not a feminist (not pro choice) will counter punch any perceived gender advantage for the Republicans.