Welcome to COP This!
Why the Copenhagen Accord is not as bad as you think
In my article for New Matilda earlier this week about the domestic implications of Copenhagen, I wrote that while the Copenhagen negotiations failed, the Accord still represents a number of real steps forward:
It is true that, for the first time, big developing nations like China, India, Brazil and South Africa have agreed to reduce their emissions. In that sense, this new agreement does mark a real departure from the previous “two-track” Kyoto process, where “Annex I” developed nations were treated differently from developing nations. It is a real achievement, as perceptive commentators like the Sydney Morning Herald’s Ben Cubby have noted.
Now I’d like to draw your attention to one of the best analyses of the Accord, by Grist’s Sam Hummel. Hummel argues that most of the coverage of the Accord has been patchy, misguided and inaccurate (a sentiment I’d agree with). He identifies five fallacies in the coverage, which I’ll paraphrase below:
Fallacy #1—The “Copenhagen Accord” text preempted a better agreement from being adopted at COP15.
Wrong. There was essentially nothing on the table even at the very end of the chaotic COP15 talks.
Fallacy #2—The poor countries of the world rejected the Accord.
Hummel writes that “I will never forget the desperate words of the President of Maldives literally begging these nations to drop their opposition to the Accord. (2:52 into the overnight plenary video) His pleading was followed by a long applause and similar appeals by negotiators from dozens of other countries and the representatives of nearly every major UN coordinating group, each stating that the parties in their group, through them, wished to express their support for the passage of the Accord. Those bodies include the Alliance Of Small Island States (AOSIS), the Least Developed Countries (LDC), the Africa Group, and the African Union (AU).”
Fallacy #3—The Accord came out of an undemocratic backroom deal that minimized the voice of developing nations.
Hummel observes:
According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who also participated in many of those meetings, the 28 nations selected were intentionally representative of all the major UN negotiating groups, the major carbon emitters, the major economies, diverse regions and the majority of the world’s population. I can’t find a complete list of the participating nations online anywhere but the representative of Grenada listed 23 in her remarks:
- Sweden (outgoing President of the EU)
- Spain (incoming President of the EU)
- Saudi Arabia (head rep for OPEC)
- Russian Federation
- Norway (leader in climate funding)
- Maldives
- Lesotho (head rep for LDCs)
- South Africa
- Bangladesh
- Algeria (head rep of the Africa Group)
- Denmark (COP15 President)
- Mexico (COP16 President)
- Germany
- France
- UK
- Ethiopia (head rep for the African Union)
- Colombia
- Korea
- China (largest national population)
- India (2nd largest national population)
- US (3rd largest national population)
- Brazil
- Grenada (head rep for AOSIS)
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COP 15 update: Where are we?
Folks,
‘Where are we?’ is a good question. I’m not sure - had to fly at 6am, but the good times kept rolling, so I missed the continuing saga. I’m really tired - and know it coz atrocious puns like ‘good cop bad cop’ and ‘copulating’ keep entering my head, but they’re not relevant and one isn’t appropriate for a family audience, so I’ll not mention them here.
The snippents so far from colleagues that stuck it out like the hard nuts they are contain what might be one key point: that the the ‘accord’ isn’t adopted, but instead it is ‘noted’ by parties. And these are apparently very different concepts with very different implications (one fella describes them as ‘night and day’), i.e. ‘noted’ is much weaker, allows some things specified in the accord to move ahead, but without formally committing any countries to the content. Times like this you need a lawyer in the house: Jeff, any thoughts?
Anyways, truly bizarre couple of weeks, and so soon after the fact, it’s not clear for what. It’s an absolute disgrace those jokers couldnt get their acts together - it’s not like they haven’t had enough time and resources available. On the upside, perhaps we’ve not locked in failure through a crap agreement that’s binding. <maybe what’s happenend is we’ve lived to fight another day. Having said that though, how much longer will it take to get what we so desperately need? Time is short. I wonder if we can get a good agreement within the next 12 months? And even when we do, it’s still just the beginning. We’ve a ways to go on climate change.
A final thought, inspired by the 1.5oC vs 2oC upper limit debate (actually it’s not really a debate: the answer is 1.5oC, and the knuckleheads like Rudd getting stuck on 2oC need to take a look in the mirror). This thought is also inspired by how strong the smaller, more vulnerable countries have been, with Tuvalu a standout. I say let’s make sure the small islands are safe, because apart from being the right thing to do, if they’re safe, being more vulnerable and all, then we’re all safe. Let’s commit to making al countries safe, especially the more vulnerable ones.
Obama says the US will engage in climate change because doing so is good for the US. (He also said the US would stick to it’s path come what may, which sounded supsiciously like a kinder, gentler version of that quote attributed to Bush Sr at Rio back in ‘92, that ‘the US way of life is not up for negotiation’.) Well sunshine, if you do it coz it’s good for the islands instead, then you save yourself the awful calculus needed to draw a safety line that somehow has the US on one side, and Tuvalu on the other.
If I hear any more that actually makes sense I’ll be in touch. Otherwise, I think we’re all done.
All good wishes for the holidays and the new year,
Liam
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UPDATE: We’re in uproar, so let’s have a short break…
Folks,
I had to pull out of here for a couple of hours to get my stuff ready to leave for the airport when the ‘deal’ was prematurely announced, and when the perhaps umpteen versions of text were circulating. As I bash this out we’re officially stuck. I got back shortly before 3am, in time for this insane, last gasp for Copenhagen, session. The vibe is unreal, as in, ‘is this real?’. The Danes are desperate for a success out of here, but it seems like they and/or the industrialized dirtbags only know one trick: exclusive backroom deals and trying on the pressure. Well, this time around it’s fallen flat on it’s face. Again. The Danish PM – Rasmussen – is a joke. He’s a hopeless Chair. He tried on presenting a proposal that he’s worked up with a chosen few, and then suspended the meeting for an hour for parties to consider it. Tuvalu had called for the floor before he suspended, but he ignored or didn’t see the request. Tuvalu started banging his table with a pen. Others joined. It was extraordinary. Rasmussen was forced to de-suspend the meeting so Tuvalu could speak.
Tuvalu let rip. They’ve no interest in signing their own death sentence, let alone smiling while they do it. Then Venezuela tore into the text too. And Bolivia. And even Costa Rica. Then things turned totally farcical. Rasmussen claimed there was one more speaker – the US – and that would complete the interventions. Nicaruagua started waiving his name plate around – and everyone could see coz he was sitting in front of the US and was blocking the camera view of the US. The US said he’d happily yield to Nicaragua. Rasmussen said the US was first. Nicaragua said he knows that, but he’s been shafted before, and others have too, and Rasmussen saying the US was the last speaker got him worried. He said he was fine to go after the US. But the US didn’t want to speak anymore. Nicaragua was still fine to go after the US. Then Rasmussen said Sudan had called for the floor so he passed to Sudan. Sudan said there must have been a terrible mistake – apparently he’d called for the floor accidentally. The US still didn’t want to speak. Sudan didn’t either. So Nicaragua did, and blasted the text too. So, once again, out comes a text that’s been produced in secret, and there’s the expectation that it’ll get up, and it doesn’t coz it isn’t any good and folks say so.
And that’s why we’re having a little break now. Folks are jacking up at the content for being crap, at the process for being undemocratic, and at Rasmussen for being useless. I don’t think anyone knows what’s happening next. The place is buzzing, some folks are huddling, and we’re coming up to 4.30am. I’ve gotta leave here soon.
Cheers,
Liam
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STOP PRESS: News of an agreement is well premature
Folks,
Hang on to your hats. News of an agreement out of Copenhagen are well premature. Tuvalu’s gone hardcore. Venezuela, Equador, Cuba and Nicaragua also reject outright the draft agreement.
The COP President, i.e. the Danish PM Rasmussen, is a barely-there-Chair - he’s a laughing stock.
Cheers,
Liam
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DAY 12: Bollo would have a bad feeling about this
Folks,
It’s the late afternoon of the last day and things look pretty bad. Overall impressions of things without adequate reflection time are always suspect/liable to revision. But I wonder if over the past 12 days what’s happened is that instead of moving forward, early on these negotiations began with a massive lurch backwards. I mean in terms of (i) content, i.e. what’s agreed, and (ii) certainly in terms of trust between parties, particularly across the industrialized/low income divide. Since then, in terms of content, it’s been about trying to crawl back to where things already were. There’s lots of different issues, and some appear to have made more progress than others. But overall, there’s nothing here. As for trust, well… that seems to be in very short supply.
This morning we had an informal High Level Segment session. The public statements aren’t really real: the negotiations are happening in smaller rooms. But the statements can be helpful indicators of which way the winds are blowing. China, Brazil India and others all wheeled out and each used their time to defend the provisions of the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, and to call for transparency in process. (As someone here said ‘you know it’s bad when the Chinese government is calling for transparency’.) There were some variations to each country’s position, but that’s the guts of it: back to the future, defending agreements already made. Meanwhile, there’s little forward motion to point to.;
President Lula for Brazil said [to paraphrase]: He’s NOT up for signing something here, just so we can say we signed something. Will an angel come down and give us the intelligence we’ve lacked till now? Don’t know if that’s possible. I believe in God and miracles. But for the miracle, we need to remember that we had 2 working groups and they’ve produced working papers.
Lula says the ‘role for the rich countries is not to ‘save us’, but to work together’.
Then Obama appeared from behind a secret door and took the floor. His speech was hollow. He’s got little to offer of any substance, i.e. cuts in emissions. US Senator Inhofe, a key climate denier, was here yesterday claiming climate change is crap and vowing the US Senate wouldn’t be passing any climate laws. Obama said the US was back on the international scene, demonstrating leadership, and it was time for countries to get behind a common accord. It was pretty sad really. They’re the only industrialized country that hasn’t ratified the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. committed to legally binding cuts, and there he is claiming to be showing leadership.
Then Chavez came out for Venezuela and tore strips off Obama. He said Obama’s the recipient of the Nobel Prize for War, that he’s been shopping around another secret text and he (Chavez) has had a gutful. I think he said he’s leaving. He also said Venezuela and the other countries in his group (Bolivia, Equador, Cuba, etc) haven’t seen Obama’s secret text and won’t be supporting it under any circumstances. He mocked Obama’s offer of money, saying it’s miniscule compared to what he threw at the banks in the midst of the financial crisis. He said [to parpaphrase]: Obama will remain one of the great frustrations for many people because they believed in him. But his government is a continuation of the previous government. We can’t wait and we are leaving. Our group countries reject any document that Obama slips under the door. We are leaving without an agreement and that’s because of the fault of the industrialized countries, which caused the problem. This will be a closing [to the negotiations] which will have no glory. But let’s honour the people who have put in such efforts, and let’s hope that the intense work that has gone in to this will not be lost. An inglorious closing as Fidel [Castro had predicted], but I don’t want it to be regrettable. We will close with hopes still. An inglorious closing, but a beautiful one, full of hope which we will take back to our countries.
So, it’s 6.30pm now, and the formal High Level Segment sessions scheduled for the afternoon haven’t happened. At this stage: there’s no chance of a legally binding agreement. There’s no chance of a political agreement. Even a 3 page statement leaders are apparently trying to work up is struggling. Obama was supposed to fly out at 6pm, but the word is the highway’s still clear, suggesting there’s truth to rumours that leaders have been asked to stay overnight. I mean, you can’t know, but a few hours will surely deliver at best a face-saving fig leaf (can you have that?). If that comes off the leaders will count that as a result for them, but it doesn’t do anyone else any good. I.e. it does nothing on climate change mitigation. One fella here who’s been to every COP (all 15 of them, and he was keen to point out that he’s never been to one like this, with all the leaders), reckons anything good is going to take another year’s work. At least. Unbelievable.
NEWS FLASH: might be a plenary starting soon. Perhaps there’ll be more to say from today….
Cheers folks,
Liam
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DAY 11: Eerie calm with late gusts of heads of states and their entourages
Folks,
Late last night I didn’t get out of here before midnight, but I scored a pass into Bella Center for today (Thursday) and Friday. Eventually, after wrangling between UN security folks and others in the UN, 300 passes were issued to observers for the last two days – down from 22,000, or however many observers registered. That’s right: 300. Of the 300, only 100 also give access to the plenaries, and I went close, but no cigar. The security is ramping up, and apparently they didn’t want any observers to have access. Even the DHL shipping stand set up with other services (bank, post office, etc) has to pack up and leave before tomorrow.
Yesterday it felt here as though everything was falling apart. Today somehow seems more hopeful. Partly everything is calmer, eerily calmer. Also, reports from late last night suggest there might be some chance for consensus around the text of the ad hoc working group on Long-term Cooperative Actions (AWG-LCA). Hillary Clinton is waving around US$100 billion annually by 2020 for low income country adaptation. A binding, ecologically realistic cut in US emissions would be preferable every time, but it’s a big number, it’s apparently dependent on reaching an agreement here, and so perhaps is designed to draw countries together. The Tuvalu PM was asked about it at a media briefing today and called Clinton’s money “a ‘carrot’ to dangle in front of the poor countries.” The detail is of course important. (And he says he won’t sign anything less than a target of 1.5oC because higher than that is death for his people.) All the same, it’s a big shiny move, it’s got folks talking and wondering about what might still be possible.
The lack of trust is real problem: low income countries are furious at the various moves to shift substantive discussions into multiple and multilevel informal groups. We’ve had two lots of secret bully texts. Plus the rest no doubt. The switcheroo of the COP President from Connie Hedergaad to the Danish PM, to free up Connie to liaise informally with parties, looks like it was a sneaky move too. I mean, it’s a joke having the Danish PM in the President role: he clearly isn’t across the issues or the process, e.g. even the names of the meetings he’s presiding over. (I’m not saying it isn’t complicated and difficult to follow, it is. And that’s why you need folks who know what they’re doing.) Meanwhile, Connie’s beavering away out of view.
So, there’s a tension between lack of trust on the one side, and the awesome and increasing pressure to get a result on the other. The low income countries have been jacking up which has been great to see. For sure there’s posturing all ‘round, but really feels like the low income country folks are not in the mood for more crap. We’ve two days to go, there’ll be more heads of states and governments here than have ever before been in the one place, and so it’s all in the balance. There’s a lot of heads of state here, and they’re all going to want walk away with something to show for it. Germany’s Merkel passed by late in the evening, and France’s Sarkozy too. Each was surrounded by a voluminous entourage of security, advisers, media, groupies, etc. They gust through the throngs of like small odd whirlwinds.
Cheers folks,
Liam
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State of play
Apologies for the abrupt nature of this post but there are a lot of rapid developments going on and I thought I would share everything I know at this stage.
The situation at the Bella Center is extremely fluid. President Obama has just completely reworked the agenda and delayed his high level address to convene a meeting between 18 heads of state, including the UK, Germany, China, Australia and India, to try and get an agreement.
Negotiations continued all night and all through the morning. Countries broke up into smaller working groups discussing individual issues like technology, finance, adaptation and agriculture.
There wasn’t much progress on most issues including REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation) , mitigation and finance.
The big news in finance is still that the US supporting a fund starting at $10 billion but ramping up to $100+ billion by 2020.
On the LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) front it looks like the G77 will be dropping its opposition to some of the more contentious points (probably in exchange for something else) which is bad news in terms of projected baseline loopholes.
There are a couple of leaked draft texts floating around. The one being taken the most seriously refers to developed countries taking on some level of undefined cuts. This is due to the US who bracketed all the figures in the text and want it only to refer to overall aggregate emissions.
There are no figures for cuts by developing countries.
The legal framework has been left to be hammered out at COP16 in Mexico.
The document talks about fast-start financing of $30 billion over the next three years rising to $100 billion by 2020.
The commitment period lasts until 2016 when the agreement will be renegotiated and possibly strengthened and broadened.
There’s still a whole of things up in the air and everything is changing by the hour.
I will try and update the blog with what’s going on.
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